Does HDB lease decay only matter near the end of the lease?
HDB resale data shows a price gap from 75 to 84 years of lease left, not only near the end. What is true, what is not, and what to check.
A common view says a 99-year HDB lease costs you nothing until the last 20 or 30 years. Before that, the flat is as good as new. The data does not support that view. Buyers already paid less per sqm for shorter leases when 75 to 84 years were left.
The myth
The logic is simple. With 80 years left, the lease will not run out in your time. So it seems not to matter.
But buyers do not price only their own stay. They also price the next sale, and the next buyer’s loan and CPF use.
What the data shows
Our data study compared HDB resale prices per sqm by years of lease left. It held town, flat type and year of sale fixed. It used a Propwise calculation on HDB resale flat prices from data.gov.sg, as at Sep 2026 (transactions Jan 2024 to Sep 2026). Each gap is against flats with 85 to 94 years left.
| Years of lease left | Typical gap in median price per sqm | Groups | Deals (band / 85 to 94) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 to 84 | −12% | 74 | 6,453 / 12,916 |
| 55 to 64 | −24% | 119 | 13,674 / 12,056 |
| 45 to 54 | −41% | 65 | 6,780 / 4,887 |
Source: Propwise calculation from HDB resale flat prices (data.gov.sg), as at Sep 2026 (transactions Jan 2024 to Sep 2026). Groups are town, flat type and year of sale. The study has all bands, the 2017 to 2026 results and the method.
Source: Propwise calculation from HDB resale flat prices (data.gov.sg), as at Sep 2026. Paler bars (95 or more, under 45) rest on few groups (9 and 14). Gaps are not a forecast for any one flat.
The part that is true
The fall is not even. It is faster in the later bands. The step from 55 to 64 years left to 45 to 54 years is the largest in the study: from −24% to −41%.
Flats with 95 or more years left sold for about the same as flats with 85 to 94 years, though on thin counts. At the top of the lease range, a few years made little visible difference.
So the end of the lease does matter more than the start. The myth is right about that.
The part that is not
The gap does not wait for the final decades. In the same town, flat type and year, flats with 75 to 84 years left sold for a typical 12% less per sqm than flats with 85 to 94 years left. That is still 75 or more years of lease.
The data does not say why. Older flats differ in location, size, storey and condition, and lease is one factor among several. It shows only that buyers paid less, not that lease length alone caused it.
The study also compares different flats at one time. It does not follow one flat down the lease. A flat you buy today will not necessarily lose value along the same path.
What matters for financing and resale
The CPF Board says the remaining lease must cover the youngest buyer using CPF to age 95. If it does, CPF use can reach the lower of the purchase price and the valuation price. If it does not, CPF use is limited to a percentage of that lower figure.
CPF’s terms for using CPF under the Housing Scheme (last updated 7 Sep 2026) give a rough guide in its Table 1. It shows the most CPF you can use, as a share of the lower of the price and the valuation, for a lease that does not cover the youngest owner to age 95:
| Remaining lease | Youngest owner 25 | Youngest owner 35 | Youngest owner 45 | Youngest owner 55 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 years or more | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 60 years | 80% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 50 years | 60% | 75% | 100% | 100% |
| 40 years | 40% | 50% | 67% | 100% |
Source: CPF Board, terms for use of CPF under the Housing Scheme, Table 1 (last updated 7 Sep 2026). CPF calls the table a rough guide. Darker means more CPF can be used.
The same page says no CPF savings can be used if the remaining lease is 20 years or less. CPF calls Table 1 a rough guide, so check the exact figure for your purchase with CPF.
Take a flat with 55 to 64 years left. It meets the rule only if the youngest buyer is about 31 to 40 or older. At 45 to 54 years left, the youngest buyer must be about 41 to 50 or older. Each year of lease used up shrinks the group of younger buyers who can use CPF in full when you sell.
The data cannot show whether this rule explains the larger step at 45 to 54 years. It does show that the step exists.
What to check before you buy an older flat
This list is neutral. It does not say to buy or to avoid.
- The exact remaining lease. Use the lease start year and the sale date, and not a rounded figure in a listing.
- The lease on the day you plan to sell. A flat with 60 years left today has 45 left in 15 years. Check what the rules above mean for your buyer then.
- The youngest buyer’s age. If any CPF-using buyer is young, read CPF’s Table 1 above and ask CPF what percentage applies to this lease.
- Recent deals nearby. Search the HDB resale flat prices dataset for the same block or street. Compare flats with a similar lease, size and storey.
- Price against valuation. CPF use is tied to the lower of the two, so a gap means more cash.
- Your loan. Ask HDB or your bank how the lease affects the loan, before you commit.
Sources
- HDB resale flat prices, data.gov.sg, under the Singapore Open Data Licence. Deals Jan 2024 to Sep 2026.
- CPF Board: how much CPF savings you can use for your home purchase, last updated 26 May 2026.
- CPF Board: terms for use of CPF under the Housing Scheme, last updated 7 Sep 2026 (Table 1).
- Propwise calculation: HDB lease decay data study.
