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Where Are Singapore Property Prices Heading in Q4 2026 and 2027?

Where Singapore property heads into 2027: private prices at a record, HDB resale dipping, record land supply, SORA near 1.2%, and the risks to watch.

By Propwise EditorialUpdated 2 October 20269 min read

Singapore city skyline of office and residential towers at blue hour, lights reflected in the water

Singapore’s private home prices are still rising, but slowly, while HDB resale prices have now slipped for three quarters in a row. With mortgage packages at about 1.5–2.2%, the biggest land-sales programme in years and a US rate hike in September, Propwise expects a flat-to-modestly-higher private market in 2027 and a broadly flat HDB resale market: neither a boom nor a crash.

At a glance

  • Private prices rose 1.4% in Q3 2026 (flash estimate) and about 3.4% over the past year. The URA index is at a record high, but sales volumes are down about 20% on 2025.
  • HDB resale prices fell 0.2% in Q3 2026, the third straight quarterly dip. They are about 0.6% below the Q3 2025 peak.
  • Supply is the swing factor: 9,320 private units on the 2026 Government Land Sales (GLS) Confirmed List, about 60,600 private units (including ECs) expected to complete in the coming years, 42,472 of them with planning approval, and about 19,600 BTO flats this year.
  • Rates are low but the warning light is on: 3-month compounded SORA is about 1.24%, but banks raised home-loan packages after the US Federal Reserve’s September 2026 hike (floating about 1.5–1.8%, fixed about 2.0–2.2%), and Singapore inflation is rising.
  • Propwise’s view for 2027: private prices +1% to +4%, HDB resale −2% to +1%. The main risks are a rate shock, a global downturn and a supply overhang.

Where the market stands in October 2026

IndicatorLatestChangeTrend
URA private price index1Q2009 = 100219.4 (Q2 2026)+1.4% q/q in the Q3 2026 flash estimate; +2.9% y/y to Q2 2026Q3 2020 – Q2 2026
Landed homes258.4 (Q2 2026)+2.8% q/q in the Q3 2026 flash estimateQ3 2020 – Q2 2026
Non-landed: CCR / RCR / OCRTrend line: all non-landed homes161.5 / 226.2 / 271.1-0.1% / +0.2% / +2.2% q/q in the Q3 2026 flash estimateQ3 2020 – Q2 2026
New private home sales in the monthFrom developers, excluding ECs. Launch months swing a lot296 (Sep 2026)+16.1% y/yOct 2023 – Sep 2026
Private resales in the monthCaveats, excluding ECs1,112 (Sep 2026)-17.0% y/yOct 2023 – Sep 2026
HDB resale price index1Q2009 = 100202.4 (Q3 2026 flash estimate)-0.2% q/q; -0.6% y/yQ4 2020 – Q3 2026
HDB resale transactions in the month2,246 (Sep 2026)+3.3% y/yOct 2023 – Sep 2026
HDB resales at S$1 million or more in the month208 (Sep 2026)+20.9% y/yOct 2023 – Sep 2026
Private home vacancy rate6.4% (Q2 2026)+0.2 pp on the quarter beforeQ3 2020 – Q2 2026
3-month compounded SORA1.24% (14 Oct 2026)+0.04 pp since 14 Sep 2026Oct 2024 – Oct 2026
Bank home-loan packagesLate Sep to early Oct 2026Floating about 1.5–1.8%, fixed about 2.0–2.2%Up after the 16 Sep US rate hike

Source: URA, HDB, HDB resale transactions, MAS (SORA), The Business Times, 2 Oct 2026 (loan packages), CNA, 18 Sep 2026 (loan packages). Index levels and changes are from the official series; sales counts and HDB medians are Propwise calculations from URA and HDB transaction data. Provisional (flash) figures are labelled as such. Each trend line shows the period written under it, scaled to its own range; the dot is the latest value.

Private non-landed home prices by regionURA price index, Q1 2009 = 100. Quarterly.
  • Core Central Region
  • Rest of Central Region
  • Outside Central Region
  • Policy measures (select one for details)
Private non-landed home prices by region. Three lines show condo prices by region from 2004. The rest of the central region and the suburbs have risen furthest since 2009, while the core central region has been flatter.100.0150.0200.0250.020052010201520202025OCR 271.1RCR 226.2CCR 161.52005-07-19: Property policy review, July 2005: LTV limit raised to 90%, CPF housing rules eased, foreign ownership rules eased2009-09-14: Interest-only loans and Interest Absorption Scheme disallowed, September 20092010-02-19: Seller's Stamp Duty introduced and LTV limit cut to 80%, February 20102010-08-30: Property cooling measures, August 20102010-08-30: HDB measures after National Day Rally 2010: DBSS income ceiling, 5-year MOP for non-subsidised flats2011-01-13: Property cooling measures, January 20112011-12-07: Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty introduced, December 20112012-10-05: Maximum loan tenure of 35 years and tighter LTV limits, October 20122013-01-11: Property cooling measures, January 20132013-06-28: MAS introduces the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) framework2013-08-27: HDB loan and resale measures, August 20132017-03-10: SSD holding period cut to 3 years; TDSR relaxed for equity withdrawal2018-02-19: Budget 2018: top BSD rate raised to 4% above S$1m2018-02-19: Budget 2018: Proximity Housing Grant enhanced2018-07-05: Property cooling measures, July 2018: higher ABSD and lower LTV limits2021-12-15: Property cooling measures, December 2021: higher ABSD, TDSR 55%, HDB loan LTV 85%2022-09-29: Property measures, September 2022: higher TDSR and MSR rate floor, HDB loan LTV 80%, 15-month wait-out2023-02-14: Buyer's Stamp Duty raised for higher-value properties, Budget 20232023-02-14: CPF Housing Grant raised for first-time resale buyers, Budget 20232023-04-26: ABSD rates raised, April 20232024-08-19: HDB loan LTV cut to 75% and Enhanced CPF Housing Grant raised2025-07-03: Seller's Stamp Duty holding period back to four years, rates raised by 4 ppPrivate non-landed home prices by region. Three lines show condo prices by region from 2004. The rest of the central region and the suburbs have risen furthest since 2009, while the core central region has been flatter.100.0150.0200.0250.0200520102015202020252005-07-19: Property policy review, July 2005: LTV limit raised to 90%, CPF housing rules eased, foreign ownership rules eased2009-09-14: Interest-only loans and Interest Absorption Scheme disallowed, September 20092010-02-19: Seller's Stamp Duty introduced and LTV limit cut to 80%, February 20102010-08-30: Property cooling measures, August 20102010-08-30: HDB measures after National Day Rally 2010: DBSS income ceiling, 5-year MOP for non-subsidised flats2011-01-13: Property cooling measures, January 20112011-12-07: Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty introduced, December 20112012-10-05: Maximum loan tenure of 35 years and tighter LTV limits, October 20122013-01-11: Property cooling measures, January 20132013-06-28: MAS introduces the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) framework2013-08-27: HDB loan and resale measures, August 20132017-03-10: SSD holding period cut to 3 years; TDSR relaxed for equity withdrawal2018-02-19: Budget 2018: top BSD rate raised to 4% above S$1m2018-02-19: Budget 2018: Proximity Housing Grant enhanced2018-07-05: Property cooling measures, July 2018: higher ABSD and lower LTV limits2021-12-15: Property cooling measures, December 2021: higher ABSD, TDSR 55%, HDB loan LTV 85%2022-09-29: Property measures, September 2022: higher TDSR and MSR rate floor, HDB loan LTV 80%, 15-month wait-out2023-02-14: Buyer's Stamp Duty raised for higher-value properties, Budget 20232023-02-14: CPF Housing Grant raised for first-time resale buyers, Budget 20232023-04-26: ABSD rates raised, April 20232024-08-19: HDB loan LTV cut to 75% and Enhanced CPF Housing Grant raised2025-07-03: Seller's Stamp Duty holding period back to four years, rates raised by 4 pp

Latest: CCR 161.5 (Q2 2026); RCR 226.2 (Q2 2026); OCR 271.1 (Q2 2026).

Table view
PeriodCore Central RegionRest of Central RegionOutside Central Region
Q2 2026161.5226.2271.1
Q1 2026158.6228.9271.4
Q4 2025157.7227.1265.6
Q3 2025163.4225.5263.0
Q2 2025160.7224.8260.9
Q1 2025156.0227.3258.1
Q4 2024154.8223.5257.3
Q3 2024150.9217.0249.1
Q2 2024152.6215.3249.1
Q1 2024153.1211.9248.6
Q4 2023148.1211.3248.1
Q3 2023142.5213.0237.4
Q2 2023146.5208.6225.0
Q1 2023146.6213.9222.3
Q4 2022145.4204.9218.2
Q3 2022144.4198.7224.0
Q2 2022141.2193.3208.4
Q1 2022138.6181.7204.1
Q4 2021138.7186.7199.7
Q3 2021135.1175.0188.9
Q2 2021135.8170.6189.1
Q1 2021134.3170.4185.6
Q4 2020133.6160.6183.6
Q3 2020129.5153.8180.4
Q2 2020134.6150.0177.4
Q1 2020131.1152.6177.2
Q4 2019134.1153.4177.9
Q3 2019138.0155.4173.1
Q2 2019135.3153.4171.7
Q1 2019132.3148.2171.0
Q4 2018136.4149.2170.7
Q3 2018137.8146.6169.5
Q2 2018136.0148.5169.7
Q1 2018134.8140.6164.8
Q4 2017127.8138.9156.1
Q3 2017126.0138.3154.9
Q2 2017125.9137.6153.7
Q1 2017126.5136.8154.2
Q4 2016127.0136.4154.0
Q3 2016126.9139.2154.9
Q2 2016129.4140.6156.5
Q1 2016129.0140.3157.3
Q4 2015128.6140.3159.4
Q3 2015129.0140.9159.4
Q2 2015130.6143.2162.0
Q1 2015131.4144.1163.8
Q4 2014131.9146.6165.6
Q3 2014133.1148.6167.0
Q2 2014134.2149.2167.6
Q1 2014136.2149.7169.1
Q4 2013137.6154.8169.3
Q3 2013140.5154.2170.9
Q2 2013140.9155.6167.3
Q1 2013141.2155.3161.1
Q4 2012140.3155.0158.9
Q3 2012139.4153.6153.2
Q2 2012139.2152.3151.6
Q1 2012138.4151.7150.9
Q4 2011139.2152.5149.2
Q3 2011138.5152.4148.4
Q2 2011137.5150.6145.3
Q1 2011135.3148.9142.8
Q4 2010133.9145.9138.6
Q3 2010131.0143.3135.8
Q2 2010128.9140.0132.9
Q1 2010122.4133.8125.7
Q4 2009117.2124.1120.5
Q3 2009109.2113.3113.4
Q2 200994.895.697.7
Q1 2009100.0100.0100.0
Q4 2008119.4120.4107.9
Q3 2008127.6128.3114.6
Q2 2008131.2131.5116.3
Q1 2008131.3130.6115.2
Q4 2007126.5126.4111.0
Q3 2007117.7117.4103.7
Q2 2007108.6108.796.1
Q1 2007100.7100.689.7
Q4 200695.496.987.9
Q3 200690.994.886.5
Q2 200686.394.485.8
Q1 200682.594.484.5
Q4 200581.594.184.3
Q3 200579.794.183.6
Q2 200577.994.183.6
Q1 200577.693.783.6
Q4 200476.992.983.4
Q3 200476.492.283.0
Q2 200476.191.682.7
Q1 200476.091.583.0
Policy measures marked on this chart (22)
  • 2025-07-03 Seller's Stamp Duty holding period back to four years, rates raised by 4 pp
  • 2024-08-19 HDB loan LTV cut to 75% and Enhanced CPF Housing Grant raised
  • 2023-04-26 ABSD rates raised, April 2023
  • 2023-02-14 CPF Housing Grant raised for first-time resale buyers, Budget 2023
  • 2023-02-14 Buyer's Stamp Duty raised for higher-value properties, Budget 2023
  • 2022-09-29 Property measures, September 2022: higher TDSR and MSR rate floor, HDB loan LTV 80%, 15-month wait-out
  • 2021-12-15 Property cooling measures, December 2021: higher ABSD, TDSR 55%, HDB loan LTV 85%
  • 2018-07-05 Property cooling measures, July 2018: higher ABSD and lower LTV limits
  • 2018-02-19 Budget 2018: Proximity Housing Grant enhanced
  • 2018-02-19 Budget 2018: top BSD rate raised to 4% above S$1m
  • 2017-03-10 SSD holding period cut to 3 years; TDSR relaxed for equity withdrawal
  • 2013-08-27 HDB loan and resale measures, August 2013
  • 2013-06-28 MAS introduces the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) framework
  • 2013-01-11 Property cooling measures, January 2013
  • 2012-10-05 Maximum loan tenure of 35 years and tighter LTV limits, October 2012
  • 2011-12-07 Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty introduced, December 2011
  • 2011-01-13 Property cooling measures, January 2011
  • 2010-08-30 HDB measures after National Day Rally 2010: DBSS income ceiling, 5-year MOP for non-subsidised flats
  • 2010-08-30 Property cooling measures, August 2010
  • 2010-02-19 Seller's Stamp Duty introduced and LTV limit cut to 80%, February 2010
  • 2009-09-14 Interest-only loans and Interest Absorption Scheme disallowed, September 2009
  • 2005-07-19 Property policy review, July 2005: LTV limit raised to 90%, CPF housing rules eased, foreign ownership rules eased

Source: URA (via SingStat). Data to Q2 2026.

Two things stand out. First, the private market is grinding, not surging. Every quarterly change since the start of 2025 has been between +0.5% and +1.4%, and URA says prices rose an average of 0.9% a quarter in the first three quarters of both 2025 and 2026. Second, prices and volumes are pulling apart: prices hit new highs while fewer homes change hands. That usually means sellers are holding firm and buyers are choosier, not that demand is booming. The flash estimate uses partial-quarter data; URA publishes full Q3 figures on 23 October 2026.

What changed in 2026: the policy scorecard

The Government made targeted changes for first-timers, HDB buyers, ECs and old estates, and left the investor-facing measures alone.

DateChangeWho it affects
8 May 2026EC scheme tightened for new sites: 10-year MOP, open to foreigners only after year 15, no Deferred Payment Scheme, 90% first-timer quotaFuture EC buyers
28 Jul 202615-month wait-out removed for private owners buying a non-subsidised resale flat without an HDB loan (they must sell the private home within 6 months)Downgraders, retirees
28 Jul 2026Longer ABSD remission timelines for developers of large en bloc sites (6 to 7 years)Developers, en bloc owners
24 Aug 2026HDB income ceiling raised from S$14,000 to S$16,000 for families (S$8,000 for singles); new-EC ceiling S$18,000BTO and EC applicants
4 Aug and 8 Sep 2026En bloc bill: consent threshold to fall to 70% for developments aged 40–59 years and 65% for 60 years and older; passed by Parliament on 8 Sep but not yet in force; start date not yet announcedOwners of older condos

What did not change: ABSD (20% for a citizen’s second home, 60% for foreigners, unchanged since April 2023), the 55% TDSR and 4% stress-test rate, the 4-year Seller’s Stamp Duty for homes bought from July 2025, and the 75% HDB loan limit. Readers coming from our 2021 outlook should note that almost every number in it has since changed: TDSR was 60%, ABSD for a second home was 12%, and home loans were priced off SIBOR, which no longer exists.

Four rules the Government left alone in 2026The 2026 changes were for first-timers, HDB buyers, ECs and old estates.
ABSDUnchanged since April 2023
Citizen, second home
20%
Foreigner
60%
TDSRDebt cap and stress test
Share of gross income
55%
Stress-test rate
4%
Seller's Stamp DutyHomes bought from July 2025
Holding period
4 years
HDB loanLoan limit
Share of price
75%

Source: IRAS, ABSD (October 2026); MAS, MSR and TDSR rules; MAS, SSD holding period; HDB loan guide.

So far the wait-out removal has not moved prices: HDB said in its 30 September release that it had not seen a significant increase in resale prices or volumes.

Supply: the factor that caps prices

The Government has deliberately front-loaded land supply. The 2026 GLS Confirmed List totals 9,320 private units (including ECs), more than 50% above the 10-year average, and the second-half Reserve List can release about 4,455 more if developers ask.

URA counts 42,472 units (including ECs) in the pipeline with planning approval. Adding 18,153 unsold units that have no planning approval yet gives about 60,600 units expected to complete in the coming years. Only 2,483 units (including 872 EC units) were completed in the first half of 2026, but about 25,900 are due by the end of 2028 and about 34,700 after that. URA counts about 15,810 unsold units with planning approval, and estimates around 32,000 unsold units could be put on sale within two years.

Private homes in the supply pipelineUncompleted private units, under construction and planned, at the end of each quarter. Excludes executive condominiums.
  • Non-landed (condos and apartments)
  • Landed
Private homes in the supply pipeline. Columns show how many private homes are in the pipeline each quarter. The total was about 47,000 in 2005, peaked at about 96,000 at the end of 2012, fell to about 43,000 in 2017, and stood at about 53,000 in the second quarter of 2026.020,00040,00060,00080,000100,00020052010201520202025Private homes in the supply pipeline. Columns show how many private homes are in the pipeline each quarter. The total was about 47,000 in 2005, peaked at about 96,000 at the end of 2012, fell to about 43,000 in 2017, and stood at about 53,000 in the second quarter of 2026.020,00040,00060,00080,000100,00020052010201520202025

Latest: Non-landed 51,677 (Q2 2026); Landed 1,109 (Q2 2026).

This is a wider count than URA's headline figure of homes with planning approval (42,472 at Q2 2026, which includes ECs): it also counts projects with provisional permission and sites that are only planned.

Table view
PeriodNon-landed (condos and apartments)Landed
Q2 202651,6771,109
Q1 202648,1111,332
Q4 202547,3581,322
Q3 202546,7871,336
Q2 202548,4741,316
Q1 202544,1341,335
Q4 202445,9341,337
Q3 202444,9971,368
Q2 202449,5981,370
Q1 202446,3351,369
Q4 202347,1911,370
Q3 202346,146980
Q2 202353,472823
Q1 202351,703887
Q4 202253,846946
Q3 202254,171934
Q2 202253,879962
Q1 202252,802970
Q4 202152,602953
Q3 202151,176925
Q2 202151,3861,004
Q1 202149,910996
Q4 202051,449954
Q3 202051,514940
Q2 202052,116939
Q1 202051,222863
Q4 201952,514899
Q3 201953,757788
Q2 201954,737864
Q1 201956,130998
Q4 201856,6021,000
Q3 201857,1561,034
Q2 201854,402921
Q1 201850,9071,180
Q4 201749,6181,234
Q3 201741,8581,196
Q2 201743,4651,199
Q1 201743,4571,255
Q4 201647,0161,352
Q3 201647,7021,383
Q2 201650,3391,507
Q1 201656,0151,582
Q4 201557,8672,292
Q3 201561,7152,462
Q2 201564,4372,774
Q1 201569,5202,823
Q4 201472,2792,909
Q3 201476,3832,981
Q2 201480,4763,157
Q1 201483,0443,355
Q4 201386,5413,477
Q3 201386,9813,744
Q2 201390,9483,825
Q1 201391,4083,804
Q4 201292,3703,860
Q3 201288,0843,785
Q2 201289,0873,784
Q1 201285,9543,885
Q4 201185,7243,807
Q3 201182,4603,872
Q2 201183,2414,001
Q1 201176,1284,044
Q4 201075,5143,963
Q3 201069,0543,933
Q2 201068,5443,914
Q1 201063,7293,942
Q4 200962,2404,186
Q3 200957,8804,209
Q2 200958,1894,423
Q1 200959,8804,614
Q4 200861,3574,872
Q3 200862,4814,982
Q2 200866,5165,127
Q1 200868,9605,248
Q4 200769,0665,056
Q3 200765,8684,853
Q2 200761,1594,453
Q1 200753,5564,352
Q4 200649,0534,452
Q3 200649,4024,357
Q2 200647,7534,498
Q1 200644,6654,397
Q4 200543,4484,458
Q3 200542,1214,737
Q2 200541,2274,684
Q1 200542,3494,350

Source: URA (via SingStat). Data to Q2 2026.

What this means: completions are light now, which has kept the vacancy rate in the 6% range and rents edging up (+0.7% in Q2 2026). From 2027 the completion wave arrives. More finished units compete for tenants and for resale buyers, and that is the main reason we do not expect a sharp rise in prices.

Private home vacancy ratePercent of completed private homes that are vacant at the end of each quarter.
Private home vacancy rate. The vacancy rate moves in a band between about 4 and 9 per cent. It peaked around 2018 and fell to a low in 2021 to 2022 before rising again.0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%2000200520102015202020256.4%Private home vacancy rate. The vacancy rate moves in a band between about 4 and 9 per cent. It peaked around 2018 and fell to a low in 2021 to 2022 before rising again.0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%200020052010201520202025

Latest: Vacancy 6.4% (Q2 2026).

Vacancy is calculated as vacant units divided by units available, using URA counts of completed private homes (landed and non-landed).

Table view
PeriodPrivate homes vacant (%)
Q2 20266.4%
Q1 20266.2%
Q4 20256.0%
Q3 20256.9%
Q2 20257.1%
Q1 20256.5%
Q4 20246.6%
Q3 20247.2%
Q2 20246.1%
Q1 20246.8%
Q4 20238.1%
Q3 20238.4%
Q2 20236.3%
Q1 20236.0%
Q4 20225.5%
Q3 20225.7%
Q2 20225.4%
Q1 20225.3%
Q4 20216.0%
Q3 20216.4%
Q2 20216.3%
Q1 20216.4%
Q4 20207.0%
Q3 20206.2%
Q2 20205.4%
Q1 20205.4%
Q4 20195.5%
Q3 20196.1%
Q2 20196.4%
Q1 20196.3%
Q4 20186.4%
Q3 20186.8%
Q2 20187.1%
Q1 20187.4%
Q4 20177.8%
Q3 20178.4%
Q2 20178.1%
Q1 20178.1%
Q4 20168.4%
Q3 20168.7%
Q2 20168.9%
Q1 20167.5%
Q4 20158.1%
Q3 20157.8%
Q2 20157.9%
Q1 20157.2%
Q4 20147.8%
Q3 20147.1%
Q2 20147.1%
Q1 20146.6%
Q4 20136.2%
Q3 20136.1%
Q2 20135.6%
Q1 20135.2%
Q4 20125.4%
Q3 20126.1%
Q2 20125.9%
Q1 20126.0%
Q4 20115.9%
Q3 20115.8%
Q2 20115.1%
Q1 20114.9%
Q4 20105.0%
Q3 20105.2%
Q2 20105.4%
Q1 20104.6%
Q4 20095.0%
Q3 20096.2%
Q2 20095.9%
Q1 20095.9%
Q4 20086.1%
Q3 20085.8%
Q2 20086.1%
Q1 20086.3%
Q4 20075.6%
Q3 20075.4%
Q2 20074.9%
Q1 20075.1%
Q4 20066.1%
Q3 20066.6%
Q2 20066.5%
Q1 20067.4%
Q4 20058.4%
Q3 20058.5%
Q2 20058.7%
Q1 20058.8%
Q4 20048.1%
Q3 20048.5%
Q2 20048.3%
Q1 20048.4%
Q4 20037.7%
Q3 20038.1%
Q2 20037.6%
Q1 20037.6%
Q4 20028.5%
Q3 20028.1%
Q2 20028.3%
Q1 20027.6%
Q4 20018.2%
Q3 20017.6%
Q2 20017.1%
Q1 20016.5%
Q4 20006.9%
Q3 20007.9%
Q2 20009.1%
Q1 20008.5%

Source: URA (via SingStat). Data to Q2 2026.

On the HDB side, HDB plans about 19,600 BTO flats in 2026, including about 7,960 in the November exercise. The number of flats reaching their minimum occupation period (MOP) is also rising each year through 2028 (AsiaOne). More flats eligible for resale, plus a higher BTO income ceiling that keeps more families in the BTO queue, is why HDB resale prices have stalled after a 9.7% rise in 2024.

Interest rates: cheap money, with a warning light

The 3-month compounded SORA, the benchmark for most floating home loans, was about 1.24% on 14 Oct 2026. Packages are priced at SORA plus a spread, or fixed for two to three years, and banks raised them after the US rate hike on 16 September: floating loans now cost about 1.5–1.8% and fixed loans about 2.0–2.2%, as reported by The Business Times (2 October 2026) and CNA (18 September 2026). That is still far below 2023, when SORA itself peaked at about 3.7–3.8%.

Singapore and US interest rates since 2019Percent a year. Weekly values: 3-month compounded SORA and the US effective federal funds rate.
  • 3-month compounded SORA (Singapore)
  • US federal funds rate (effective)
Singapore and US interest rates since 2019. Both rates fell to near zero in 2020 and 2021, then rose sharply in 2022 and 2023. SORA peaked near 3.7 per cent and has since fallen to about 1.2 per cent, while the US rate stays above 3.5 per cent.0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%2020202120222023202420252026Fed 3.88%SORA 1.24%Singapore and US interest rates since 2019. Both rates fell to near zero in 2020 and 2021, then rose sharply in 2022 and 2023. SORA peaked near 3.7 per cent and has since fallen to about 1.2 per cent, while the US rate stays above 3.5 per cent.0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%2020202120222023202420252026

Latest: SORA 1.24% (14 Oct 2026); Fed 3.88% (13 Oct 2026).

SORA is the benchmark for floating-rate home loans in Singapore. The US rate is shown for context: it moves SORA only indirectly, through the Singapore dollar and bank funding costs.

Table view
Period3-month compounded SORA (Singapore)US federal funds rate (effective)
Oct 20261.24%3.88%
Sep 20261.23%3.88%
Aug 20261.18%3.63%
Jul 20261.14%3.63%
Jun 20261.08%3.63%
May 20261.06%3.62%
Apr 20261.03%3.64%
Mar 20261.07%3.64%
Feb 20261.12%3.64%
Jan 20261.15%3.64%
Dec 20251.19%3.64%
Nov 20251.25%3.89%
Oct 20251.32%4.11%
Sep 20251.46%4.09%
Aug 20251.56%4.33%
Jul 20251.86%4.33%
Jun 20252.06%4.33%
May 20252.27%4.33%
Apr 20252.40%4.33%
Mar 20252.55%4.33%
Feb 20252.73%4.33%
Jan 20252.90%4.33%
Dec 20243.08%4.33%
Nov 20243.21%4.58%
Oct 20243.39%4.83%
Sep 20243.49%4.83%
Aug 20243.57%5.33%
Jul 20243.64%5.33%
Jun 20243.63%5.33%
May 20243.66%5.33%
Apr 20243.65%5.33%
Mar 20243.68%5.33%
Feb 20243.64%5.33%
Jan 20243.66%5.33%
Dec 20233.70%5.33%
Nov 20233.75%5.33%
Oct 20233.75%5.33%
Sep 20233.70%5.33%
Aug 20233.70%5.33%
Jul 20233.68%5.33%
Jun 20233.65%5.07%
May 20233.61%5.08%
Apr 20233.61%4.83%
Mar 20233.58%4.83%
Feb 20233.23%4.58%
Jan 20233.12%4.33%
Dec 20223.03%4.33%
Nov 20222.87%3.83%
Oct 20222.45%3.08%
Sep 20222.07%3.08%
Aug 20221.55%2.33%
Jul 20221.27%2.32%
Jun 20220.72%1.58%
May 20220.52%0.83%
Apr 20220.32%0.33%
Mar 20220.27%0.33%
Feb 20220.25%0.08%
Jan 20220.20%0.08%
Dec 20210.19%0.08%
Nov 20210.16%0.08%
Oct 20210.16%0.07%
Sep 20210.13%0.08%
Aug 20210.13%0.08%
Jul 20210.13%0.10%
Jun 20210.14%0.10%
May 20210.17%0.05%
Apr 20210.19%0.07%
Mar 20210.23%0.07%
Feb 20210.20%0.07%
Jan 20210.17%0.07%
Dec 20200.17%0.09%
Nov 20200.12%0.08%
Oct 20200.12%0.09%
Sep 20200.10%0.09%
Aug 20200.10%0.09%
Jul 20200.08%0.09%
Jun 20200.14%0.08%
May 20200.27%0.05%
Apr 20200.53%0.05%
Mar 20200.90%0.10%
Feb 20201.14%1.58%
Jan 20201.20%1.55%
Dec 20191.27%1.55%
Nov 20191.31%1.55%
Oct 20191.46%1.83%
Sep 20191.53%1.83%
Aug 20191.59%2.12%
Jul 20191.67%2.40%
Jun 20191.72%2.40%
May 20191.68%2.38%
Apr 20191.62%2.44%
Mar 20191.54%2.43%
Feb 20191.59%2.40%
Jan 20191.52%2.40%

Source: MAS, FRED. Data to 14 Oct 2026.

Here is what that means for a typical purchase. Say you buy a S$1.5m condo with a 75% loan of S$1.125m over 30 years:

Mortgage rateMonthly instalment
1.75% (mid-range floating today)S$4,019
2.1% (mid-range fixed today)S$4,215
3.5%S$5,052
4.0% (the TDSR stress-test rate)S$5,371
Monthly instalment on a S$1.125m loan, by mortgage rateS$1.5m condo, 75% loan, 30 years. The 4.0% row is the stress-test rate banks use.
  1. 1.75% (mid-range floating)S$4,019
  2. 2.1% (mid-range fixed)S$4,215
  3. 3.5%S$5,052
  4. 4.0% (TDSR stress-test rate)S$5,371

S$ a month

Source: Propwise calculation (mortgage calculator) (October 2026). Rates are examples: about 1.5-1.8% floating and 2.0-2.2% fixed in late September 2026 (The Business Times, 2 Oct 2026).

At 4%, the bank needs your monthly debt payments to be within 55% of gross income, so with no other debts you need about S$9,765 a month to qualify. Try your own numbers in our mortgage calculator.

The warning light: on 16 September 2026 the US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 0.25 points to 3.75–4.00%, saying inflation “remains elevated”. In Singapore, consumer prices rose about 1.8% in the year to Q2 2026, up from about 0.6% a year earlier. MAS steers policy through the exchange rate, not interest rates, so SORA does not follow the Fed one for one. But SORA rose sharply in 2022–23 when US rates rose, and it could do so again.

One reason Singapore prices did not crack in 2022–23 is the stress test. Banks already size loans as if rates were 4%, so buyers were not stretched when rates actually rose. The same rule means today’s low rates have not raised how much people can borrow. More on this in how interest rates affect property prices.

Demand: a strong economy, but upgraders are less flush

The economy is doing better than most people expected: real GDP grew 6.3% year on year in the quarter before and 5.9% in Q2 2026. Jobs and incomes, not interest rates, are what keep owners from becoming forced sellers.

Singapore real GDP growthYear-on-year growth of GDP in chained (2015) dollars, by quarter.
Singapore real GDP growth. GDP growth fell to minus 11.7 per cent in the second quarter of 2020 and jumped to plus 18.9 per cent a year later. Most other quarters sit between 0 and 8 per cent, and growth was about 6 per cent in the first half of 2026.-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%200520102015202020255.9%Singapore real GDP growth. GDP growth fell to minus 11.7 per cent in the second quarter of 2020 and jumped to plus 18.9 per cent a year later. Most other quarters sit between 0 and 8 per cent, and growth was about 6 per cent in the first half of 2026.-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%20052010201520202025

Latest: GDP 5.9% (Q2 2026).

Final figures from SingStat. The advance estimate for each quarter comes about six weeks earlier and is not shown.

Table view
PeriodReal GDP growth (% y/y)
Q2 20265.9%
Q1 20266.3%
Q4 20255.7%
Q3 20254.5%
Q2 20255.4%
Q1 20254.5%
Q4 20245.3%
Q3 20247.0%
Q2 20244.8%
Q1 20244.3%
Q4 20233.1%
Q3 20231.6%
Q2 20230.6%
Q1 20230.5%
Q4 20222.4%
Q3 20224.4%
Q2 20225.0%
Q1 20224.4%
Q4 20218.0%
Q3 20219.7%
Q2 202118.9%
Q1 20214.9%
Q4 2020-0.1%
Q3 2020-3.9%
Q2 2020-11.7%
Q1 20201.4%
Q4 20191.6%
Q3 20190.6%
Q2 20191.1%
Q1 20191.3%
Q4 20181.1%
Q3 20182.8%
Q2 20184.5%
Q1 20184.4%
Q4 20174.2%
Q3 20175.0%
Q2 20173.5%
Q1 20174.6%
Q4 20165.2%
Q3 20163.5%
Q2 20163.4%
Q1 20163.5%
Q4 20152.2%
Q3 20153.7%
Q2 20153.1%
Q1 20153.0%
Q4 20144.5%
Q3 20143.7%
Q2 20143.3%
Q1 20144.3%
Q4 20135.1%
Q3 20136.1%
Q2 20134.6%
Q1 20133.4%
Q4 20124.7%
Q3 20122.0%
Q2 20126.2%
Q1 20124.8%
Q4 20115.3%
Q3 20117.8%
Q2 20112.9%
Q1 20119.2%
Q4 201013.3%
Q3 201010.3%
Q2 201018.6%
Q1 201016.3%
Q4 20096.8%
Q3 20092.8%
Q2 2009-1.2%
Q1 2009-7.7%
Q4 2008-3.4%
Q3 2008-0.1%
Q2 20083.3%
Q1 20088.2%
Q4 20076.6%
Q3 200711.0%
Q2 200710.0%
Q1 20078.6%
Q4 20068.5%
Q3 20068.6%
Q2 20068.8%
Q1 200610.2%
Q4 20059.2%
Q3 20058.5%
Q2 20056.2%
Q1 20055.4%

Source: Department of Statistics (via SingStat). Data to Q2 2026.

The weaker link is the HDB upgrader. HDB resale prices rose about 53% between Q2 2020 and Q3 2026, and that equity paid for many condo purchases. With resale prices now flat, upgraders cannot count on a rising sale price. Big flats still sell well (596 resales at S$1m or more in Q3 2026), but the typical upgrader is no longer getting richer each quarter. In the private market, Q3 demand favoured suburban (OCR) condos and landed homes over prime CCR units.

HDB resale price indexHDB Resale Price Index, 1Q2009 = 100. Quarterly.
  • Policy measures (select one for details)
HDB resale price index. The index slides from about 136 in 2015 to about 131 in 2019, then climbs from 2020 to a peak of about 204 in the third quarter of 2025 and has been flat since, at about 203 in the second quarter of 2026.100120140160180200201620182020202220242026202.82017-03-10: SSD holding period cut to 3 years; TDSR relaxed for equity withdrawal2018-02-19: Budget 2018: top BSD rate raised to 4% above S$1m2018-02-19: Budget 2018: Proximity Housing Grant enhanced2018-07-05: Property cooling measures, July 2018: higher ABSD and lower LTV limits2021-12-15: Property cooling measures, December 2021: higher ABSD, TDSR 55%, HDB loan LTV 85%2022-09-29: Property measures, September 2022: higher TDSR and MSR rate floor, HDB loan LTV 80%, 15-month wait-out2023-02-14: Buyer's Stamp Duty raised for higher-value properties, Budget 20232023-02-14: CPF Housing Grant raised for first-time resale buyers, Budget 20232023-04-26: ABSD rates raised, April 20232024-08-19: HDB loan LTV cut to 75% and Enhanced CPF Housing Grant raised2025-07-03: Seller's Stamp Duty holding period back to four years, rates raised by 4 ppHDB resale price index. The index slides from about 136 in 2015 to about 131 in 2019, then climbs from 2020 to a peak of about 204 in the third quarter of 2025 and has been flat since, at about 203 in the second quarter of 2026.1001201401601802002016201820202022202420262017-03-10: SSD holding period cut to 3 years; TDSR relaxed for equity withdrawal2018-02-19: Budget 2018: top BSD rate raised to 4% above S$1m2018-02-19: Budget 2018: Proximity Housing Grant enhanced2018-07-05: Property cooling measures, July 2018: higher ABSD and lower LTV limits2021-12-15: Property cooling measures, December 2021: higher ABSD, TDSR 55%, HDB loan LTV 85%2022-09-29: Property measures, September 2022: higher TDSR and MSR rate floor, HDB loan LTV 80%, 15-month wait-out2023-02-14: Buyer's Stamp Duty raised for higher-value properties, Budget 20232023-02-14: CPF Housing Grant raised for first-time resale buyers, Budget 20232023-04-26: ABSD rates raised, April 20232024-08-19: HDB loan LTV cut to 75% and Enhanced CPF Housing Grant raised2025-07-03: Seller's Stamp Duty holding period back to four years, rates raised by 4 pp

Latest: HDB 202.8 (Q2 2026).

HDB adjusts for the mix of flats sold: it used stratification up to 3Q2014 and a stratified hedonic regression from 4Q2014 (HDB, data.gov.sg). Quarters appear when HDB publishes the final figure.

Table view
PeriodHDB Resale Price Index
Q2 2026202.8
Q1 2026203.4
Q4 2025203.6
Q3 2025203.7
Q2 2025202.9
Q1 2025201.0
Q4 2024197.9
Q3 2024192.9
Q2 2024187.9
Q1 2024183.7
Q4 2023180.4
Q3 2023178.5
Q2 2023176.2
Q1 2023173.6
Q4 2022171.9
Q3 2022168.1
Q2 2022163.9
Q1 2022159.5
Q4 2021155.7
Q3 2021150.6
Q2 2021146.4
Q1 2021142.2
Q4 2020138.1
Q3 2020133.9
Q2 2020131.9
Q1 2020131.5
Q4 2019131.5
Q3 2019130.9
Q2 2019130.8
Q1 2019131.0
Q4 2018131.4
Q3 2018131.6
Q2 2018131.7
Q1 2018131.6
Q4 2017132.6
Q3 2017132.8
Q2 2017133.7
Q1 2017133.9
Q4 2016134.6
Q3 2016134.7
Q2 2016134.7
Q1 2016134.7
Q4 2015134.8
Q3 2015134.6
Q2 2015135.0
Q1 2015135.6
Policy measures marked on this chart (11)
  • 2025-07-03 Seller's Stamp Duty holding period back to four years, rates raised by 4 pp
  • 2024-08-19 HDB loan LTV cut to 75% and Enhanced CPF Housing Grant raised
  • 2023-04-26 ABSD rates raised, April 2023
  • 2023-02-14 CPF Housing Grant raised for first-time resale buyers, Budget 2023
  • 2023-02-14 Buyer's Stamp Duty raised for higher-value properties, Budget 2023
  • 2022-09-29 Property measures, September 2022: higher TDSR and MSR rate floor, HDB loan LTV 80%, 15-month wait-out
  • 2021-12-15 Property cooling measures, December 2021: higher ABSD, TDSR 55%, HDB loan LTV 85%
  • 2018-07-05 Property cooling measures, July 2018: higher ABSD and lower LTV limits
  • 2018-02-19 Budget 2018: Proximity Housing Grant enhanced
  • 2018-02-19 Budget 2018: top BSD rate raised to 4% above S$1m
  • 2017-03-10 SSD holding period cut to 3 years; TDSR relaxed for equity withdrawal

Source: HDB (via SingStat). Data to Q2 2026.

HDB resale flats sold for S$1 million or moreNumber of resales at S$1,000,000 or more in each month.
HDB resale flats sold for S$1 million or more. Million-dollar HDB resales were almost unknown before 2020, then climbed month by month to over a hundred a month in 2025 and 2026.20182020202220242026HDB resale flats sold for S$1 million or more. Million-dollar HDB resales were almost unknown before 2020, then climbed month by month to over a hundred a month in 2025 and 2026.20182020202220242026

Latest: S$1m+ 208 (Sep 2026).

Counts are by registration month. A month appears once it is complete.

Table view
PeriodResales at S$1 million or more
Sep 2026208
Aug 2026201
Jul 2026187
Jun 2026188
May 2026165
Apr 2026137
Mar 2026144
Feb 2026122
Jan 2026145
Dec 2025144
Nov 2025120
Oct 202586
Sep 2025172
Aug 2025141
Jul 2025167
Jun 2025132
May 2025142
Apr 2025141
Mar 2025108
Feb 2025121
Jan 2025119
Dec 202495
Nov 202487
Oct 2024103
Sep 2024106
Aug 2024105
Jul 2024120
Jun 202495
May 202473
Apr 202468
Mar 202460
Feb 202449
Jan 202474
Dec 202348
Nov 202345
Oct 202340
Sep 202342
Aug 202354
Jul 202332
Jun 202334
May 202334
Apr 202337
Mar 202339
Feb 202324
Jan 202340
Dec 202228
Nov 202226
Oct 202238
Sep 202245
Aug 202233
Jul 202233
Jun 202231
May 202230
Apr 202222
Mar 202227
Feb 202229
Jan 202227
Dec 202136
Nov 202129
Oct 202120
Sep 202123
Aug 202126
Jul 202119
Jun 202119
May 202113
Apr 202121
Mar 202117
Feb 202123
Jan 202113
Dec 202010
Nov 202013
Oct 202013
Sep 20208
Aug 20205
Jul 20209
Jun 20208
May 20202
Apr 20201
Mar 20205
Feb 20204
Jan 20204
Dec 20192
Nov 20194
Oct 20191
Sep 20194
Aug 20199
Jul 20198
Jun 20196
May 20198
Apr 20195
Mar 20197
Feb 20194
Jan 20196
Dec 20184
Nov 20188
Oct 20188
Sep 20187
Aug 20189
Jul 20186
Jun 201811
May 20181
Apr 20185
Mar 20188
Feb 20183
Jan 20181
Dec 20174
Nov 20175
Oct 20172
Sep 20173
Aug 20173
Jul 20179
Jun 20175
May 20176
Apr 20172
Mar 20174
Feb 20171
Jan 20172

Source: HDB (via data.gov.sg). Data to Sep 2026.

Propwise’s view for Q4 2026 and 2027

This section is Propwise’s view, based on the data above. It is not a forecast you should bet a mortgage on: forecasters rarely call turning points.

For Q4 2026, we expect private prices to be flat to +1% and HDB resale prices to move within half a percent either way.

Scenario for 2027What has to happenPrivate pricesHDB resale prices
Base case (most likely)SORA stays at 1–2%, growth slows but stays positive, new supply is absorbed slowly+1% to +4%−2% to +1%
UpsideRates stay near today’s level, en bloc rules start and trigger a wave of sales, strong jobs market+5% to +8%+1% to +3%
DownsideGlobal recession or an inflation scare pushes SORA above 3% and unemployment up−5% to −10%−3% to −6%

Why the base case: low rates and a strong economy support prices, but record land supply, the 2027–28 completion wave, unchanged cooling measures and flat HDB prices hold them back. Volumes should stay well below the 2021–22 boom.

The upside case has a ceiling. In July 2018, when private prices had risen 9.1% in a year, the Government responded by raising ABSD and cutting loan limits. A return to that pace would probably bring new measures.

The downside case has history behind it. The URA index fell 24.9% in four quarters in 2008–09 and 11.6% over 15 quarters in 2013–17. Our full list of past falls is in do Singapore property prices always go up?

The risks that would change our view

  1. A rate shock. If inflation forces global rates up, SORA could move back above 3%. A 3.5% rate adds about 26% to the instalment in our example, compared with a 1.75% floating rate.
  2. A global or trade downturn. Job losses create forced sellers. That, more than rates, is what caused past crashes. See why unemployment is the real killer.
  3. The supply wave. About 25,900 private units complete by 2028. If vacancy climbs well above today’s 6.4%, rents and investor returns fall first, then resale prices.
  4. Policy, both ways. New cooling measures if prices run, or a burst of en bloc activity once the new law starts.
  5. A widening HDB–private gap. Rising private prices and falling HDB prices make upgrading harder and shrink the buyer pool for mass-market condos.

What this means for you

  • Buying a home to live in: buy on affordability, not on the outlook. Make sure you can pay the instalment at 4% and that you will stay at least four years, because selling earlier means SSD of up to 16%.
  • Upgrading from HDB: do not assume your flat will rise. Price your sale on recent transactions, and check the ABSD timeline if you buy before you sell.
  • Investing: a citizen pays 20% ABSD on a second home, so the property must rise more than 20% before you break even. Read is property still a good investment? before you commit.
  • Selling: with a large pipeline coming, competitive pricing beats waiting for a better market. For timing questions, see is now a good time to buy?

Bottom line

The Singapore property market enters 2027 in a slow grind: record private prices, falling volumes, soft HDB resale prices, cheap mortgages and a lot of supply on the way. Our base case is small gains for private homes and flat HDB prices. The thing to watch is interest rates. If the Fed’s September hike is the start of a new cycle, today’s cheap loans are the biggest thing that could change.

property market outlookproperty price indexhdb resale price indexglsinterest rates

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