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Understanding the URA Property Price Index (2026)

How the URA private home price index is built, why its flash estimate gets revised, and how to read it, with 2025–26 flash and final figures compared.

By Propwise EditorialUpdated 2 October 20266 min read

How we made this. Updated for 2026 with AI-assisted research. Figures are linked to their sources — check them before you act.

The URA property price index tracks how private home prices change after adjusting for the mix of homes sold, so it measures price movement and not just what happened to sell that quarter. Read it with care. URA publishes a quick “flash” estimate first, and in five recent quarters the final figure differed from the flash by up to 0.6 percentage points.

This article explains how the index works and how to read it. For what the numbers mean for 2027, see our market outlook.

At a glance

  • The index covers private homes only, not ECs, with 1Q2009 = 100. The final Q2 2026 figure is 219.4. The Q3 2026 flash (+1.4%) implies about 222.5, a record.
  • It uses a stratified hedonic regression, so the mix of homes sold does not distort it.
  • Flash estimates use data to mid-quarter. In five recent quarters the flash and final figures differed by 0.3 points on average.
  • The index is not your home’s value. Use recent transactions for that.

What the index measures

The data.gov.sg notes for the series say it is compiled from caveats lodged at the option stage, supplemented by IRAS stamp duty data and developers’ new-sale data. It uses a stratified hedonic regression. The weights come from the value of properties transacted in the past five quarters. The notes say the weights are revised every three years, and cite 2015-Q1 as the latest revision.

A hedonic method adjusts for differences between the homes sold, such as location and size. Why that matters is easiest to see with a made-up example. Say a quarter has 80 outer-suburb sales at S$1,800 per sq ft and 20 core-area sales at S$3,000. The average is S$2,040. Next quarter, 60 outer-suburb and 40 core-area homes sell at the same prices, so the average jumps to S$2,280, up 11.8%. No price changed. A hedonic index would show roughly 0%.

So a headline average or median psf can mislead when the mix of sales shifts. The index is built to avoid that.

What it covers, and what it does not

The index covers private residential homes. URA’s statistics exclude executive condominiums, and HDB flats have their own series. The data.gov.sg series has three lines: all residential, landed and non-landed. URA’s quarterly releases also split non-landed homes into the Core Central Region (CCR), Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR).

HDB publishes the Resale Price Index, also set to 1Q2009 = 100. That lets you compare. In Q2 2026 the private index was 219.4 and the HDB index 202.8. Since Q2 2020, the HDB index is up 53.8% and the private index up 43.8% (Propwise calculation). For the longer story, see which has performed better, HDB or private.

The flash estimate and the final figure

URA releases a flash estimate about three weeks before the full statistics. The Q3 2026 flash uses transactions submitted for stamp duty and developer sales up to mid-September. URA warns that past data show flash estimates can differ from the actual change.

QuarterFlash (q/q)Final (q/q)Gap
Q2 2025+0.5%+1.0%0.5 pt
Q3 2025+1.2%+0.9%0.3 pt
Q4 2025+0.7%+0.6%0.1 pt
Q1 2026+0.3%+0.9%0.6 pt
Q2 2026+0.5%+0.5%0 pt

Flash figures from URA’s Q2 2025, Q3 2025, Q4 2025, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 releases. Final figures from the Q2 2025, Q3 2025, Q4 2025, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 statistics. The average gap is 0.3 points.

In Q1 2026 the flash showed the smallest quarterly rise in six quarters. The final figure was three times larger. The full Q3 2026 data is due on 23 October 2026, so treat the +1.4% as provisional.

Three checks when you read the index

1. Convert points to percentages yourself. At 219.4, one index point is about 0.46%. From Q4 2025 (216.4) to Q2 2026 (219.4) the index rose 1.4%. That matches URA’s statement for the first half of the year. Against Q2 2025 (213.2) the rise is 2.9%.

2. Look under the headline. The Q3 2026 flash showed +1.4% overall, but the segments diverged: CCR −0.1%, RCR +0.2%, OCR +2.2%, landed +2.8%. The all-homes figure hides that spread. Check the segment you care about.

3. Remember the lag. The index reflects prices agreed at the option stage (or developers’ reported sales), not asking prices. It is a record of what happened, not a forecast.

What the index cannot tell you

  • Your own home’s value. A condo in a weak project can fall while the index rises. Use URA’s property market information service, which lists transactions from the last 60 months, and compare units in the same project.
  • Whether to buy now. The index says where prices have been. See is now a good time to buy?
  • Anything about financing. Rates change affordability; the index does not. Try your numbers in our mortgage calculator.

The data.gov.sg notes say URA revises the index weights every three years, and they cite 1Q2015 as the latest revision. If an older article quotes an index level, check it against the current series on data.gov.sg before you compare it with today’s figures.

Propwise’s view

We use only the final quarterly figures for any conclusion, and treat the flash as a hint. One quarter, even a record, is not a trend. The risk to this approach is the delay: final figures arrive about three weeks after the flash, and in a fast-moving market a lot can change in that time. The index is also an average. A buyer in a segment that is falling gets no comfort from a rising headline.

Bottom line

The URA index is the best single measure of private home price change because it adjusts for the mix of sales. But it is an average, it covers private homes only, and its first release is often revised. Use the final figure, check your segment, and use real transactions to price your own home.

Sources

property price indexhdb resale price indexuraurban redevelopment authorityprice index

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