HDB vs Private Property: Which Has Performed Better in Singapore? (2026)
HDB vs private property on official indices since 1990: HDB grew faster over the long run, private has led since 1998, and risks differ. Updated to Q3 2026.
How we made this. Updated for 2026 with AI-assisted research. Figures are linked to their sources — check them before you act.
Over the long run, HDB resale prices have risen faster than private home prices. Since 1990, the HDB index has grown about 6.0% a year and the private index about 4.7%. But the lead came in the 1990s. Since the end of 1998, and since 2009, private homes have grown slightly faster, with bigger swings.
At a glance
- 1Q1990 to 2Q2026: HDB resale prices rose 8.3 times (6.0% a year). Private home prices rose 5.4 times (4.7% a year).
- Since 1Q2009: private +119% (4.7% a year), HDB +103% (4.2% a year).
- Private prices are more volatile. Since 2009 the quarterly swings of the private index are about 1.7 times as large as HDB’s.
- In 2026 the two have diverged. HDB resale prices have dipped for three quarters in a row, and private prices are at a record.
- An index is not your return. Rent, costs, lease and your entry price all change the result.
The two indices
The comparison uses two official series. The HDB Resale Price Index tracks resale flats and runs from 1Q1990. The URA Private Residential Property Price Index covers all private homes, including landed, and runs from 1975. Both are set to 100 in 1Q2009, which makes them easy to compare. I calculated everything below from these two datasets.
The latest full quarter is 2Q2026: the private index is 219.4 and the HDB index is 202.8. The 3Q2026 flash estimates show private prices up 1.4% and HDB resale prices down 0.2%, to 202.4.
Growth rates depend on the start date
When this article first ran in 2012, HDB led by a wide margin: about 7.9% a year against 5.8% from 1990. Using today’s index versions, the same period gives 8.2% against 5.9%. The long-run result has not changed. What has changed is what happened afterwards.
| Period | Years | Private (a year) | HDB (a year) | Private total | HDB total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Q1990 to 2Q2012 | 22.25 | 5.9% | 8.2% | ×3.6 | ×5.8 |
| 1Q1990 to 2Q2026 | 36.25 | 4.7% | 6.0% | ×5.4 | ×8.3 |
| 4Q1998 to 2Q2026 | 27.5 | 4.2% | 3.8% | ×3.1 | ×2.8 |
| 1Q2009 to 2Q2026 | 17.25 | 4.7% | 4.2% | ×2.2 | ×2.0 |
| 3Q2013 to 2Q2026 | 12.75 | 2.8% | 2.5% | ×1.42 | ×1.37 |
| 4Q2019 to 2Q2026 | 6.5 | 5.6% | 6.9% | ×1.43 | ×1.54 |
HDB’s outperformance is mostly a 1990s story. The HDB index rose from 24.3 in 1Q1990 to 80.3 in 1Q2000, a gain of about 12.7% a year. In the same period the private index grew about 9.2% a year. HDB prices were at a low base then. From 1998 onwards the two have moved much more closely.
The relative price tells the same story. Taking private prices divided by HDB prices (both set to 100 in 1Q2009), the ratio was about 1.68 in 1990, 1.05 in 2012 and 1.08 in 2Q2026. The long-run average is about 1.24. Private homes cost relatively less against HDB than in the 1990s, and only a little above the 2009 level. This is a ratio of two indices, not a price-per-square-foot gap.
Risk: how far each fell
The bigger difference is the drawdowns.
| Episode | Private index | HDB index |
|---|---|---|
| 1996 to 1998 Asian crisis | −44.9% (2Q1996 to 4Q1998) | −30.2% (4Q1996 to 1Q2002) |
| 2008 to 2009 global crisis | −24.9% (2Q2008 to 2Q2009) | about −0.8% |
| 2013 to 2019 cooling measures | −11.6% (3Q2013 to 2Q2017) | −12.4% (2Q2013 to 2Q2019) |
Peak-to-trough falls within each window. The HDB index took longer to bottom out in the 1990s and then years to recover. In the 2013 to 2019 period it fell as much as the private index. So HDB prices are less volatile, but they are not safe. Since 2009 the standard deviation of quarterly changes was 2.6 percentage points for private and 1.6 for HDB.
When you bought mattered more than what you bought
Take S$100,000 of value tracking each index. The table shows what it becomes.
| Buy and sell | Private | HDB |
|---|---|---|
| Buy 3Q2013, sell 4Q2019 | S$99,400 | S$88,800 |
| Buy 4Q2019, sell 2Q2026 | S$142,800 | S$154,200 |
| Buy 3Q2013, hold to 2Q2026 | S$141,900 | S$136,900 |
Someone who bought near the 2013 peak and sold in 2019 broke even in private and lost about 11% in HDB. Someone who bought in late 2019 gained more in HDB. This is a pattern, not a rule, and indices ignore all costs. So the lesson is about timing and holding period, not about which type is better.
What the indices leave out
Rent. An index measures the price only. Private owners can rent out a home with few limits beyond a three-month minimum stay. HDB owners of Standard flats can rent out the whole flat only after the MOP and with approval. Plus and Prime owners can never rent out the whole flat. Rental yield changes the total return, so see our guide to rental yield.
Transaction costs. Buyer’s Stamp Duty is progressive. It is S$12,600 on a S$600,000 flat (2.1%) and S$59,600 on a S$1.8m condo (3.3%). Private owners also face Seller’s Stamp Duty if they sell within four years of buying. When an owner sells a Plus or Prime flat after the MOP, they pay a subsidy recovery to HDB. HDB has set it at 6–8% for Plus and 9–14% for Prime in recent launches.
Lock-ins. An HDB owner must finish the minimum occupation period (5 or 10 years for new flats) before selling the flat or buying a private home. Private homes carry no MOP.
Lease. HDB flats are on 99-year leases, and so are most private condos. Freehold private homes are not. As the lease shortens, buyers can use less CPF and the price falls faster, a point we cover in valuing leasehold property. An index measures the market as a whole, but your own flat ages every year.
Your entry price and loan. A S$1.8m condo and a S$600,000 flat can rise by the same percentage and make very different dollar gains. Both also come with a loan. Model it with our mortgage calculator, because the interest cost can outweigh a year or two of price growth.
What is happening in 2026
HDB resale prices peaked at 203.7 in 3Q2025 and have since slipped to a flash 202.4, which is three dips in a row. HDB plans about 19,600 BTO flats in 2026, and more flats are reaching their MOP each year. Private prices rose 1.4% in the 3Q flash, led by the Outside Central Region and landed homes. Past results do not forecast these trends, but they show the two markets do not move in step.
Bottom line
HDB won the long-run race, mainly because of the 1990s. Private homes have kept pace or led since, with deeper falls in a crisis. The right choice for you depends on what you can buy, how long you can hold, and the costs on top of price. If you are an HDB owner weighing an upgrade, read should you sell your HDB to buy a private property? For the wider picture of HDB, EC and private housing, see our beginner’s guide and do prices always go up?
Sources
- HDB Resale Price Index (1Q2009 = 100), quarterly — HDB via data.gov.sg (checked Oct 2026)
- Private Residential Property Price Index (1Q2009 = 100), quarterly — URA via data.gov.sg (checked Oct 2026)
- Resale Price Index from 1Q1990 to 3Q2026 (flash estimate) — HDB, 30 Sep 2026
- Flash estimate of 3rd quarter 2026 private residential price index — URA, 1 Oct 2026
- Conditions after buying a new flat — HDB, 18 Aug 2026
- HDB launches 6,952 flats in June 2026 — HDB, 16 Jun 2026
- HDB to launch 19,600 BTO flats in 2026 — HDB, 8 Jan 2026
- Buyer’s Stamp Duty — IRAS (checked Oct 2026)
