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Can Transaction Volume Predict Singapore Property Prices? (2026)

How to read Singapore home transaction volumes in 2026: what URA data show on cycles, developer share and resales, and why volume is a poor timing tool.

By Propwise EditorialUpdated 2 October 20265 min read

Transaction volumes tell you how many buyers and sellers are active, not which way prices will go. In 2007 volume peaked four quarters before prices did. In 2013 the two peaked together. And between 2021 and 2023 volume fell 43% while prices rose 16%. Treat falling volume as a reason to look harder, not as a sell signal.

At a glance

  • Private home transactions in H1 2026 were 11,561, down 6.7% on H1 2025, with resales making up 62% of the total in Q2.
  • Annual volume fell by about two-thirds twice: from 40,654 in 2007 to 13,642 in 2008, and from 37,873 in 2012 to 12,847 in 2014.
  • Developer sales were 71% of all transactions in Q1 2012. In Q2 2026 they were 35%, close to the long-run average of 45%.
  • Volumes are best read as a four-quarter total, alongside prices, rents, vacancy and supply.

What the numbers count

The figures here come from the URA transactions series on data.gov.sg. It counts private residential sales in three groups: new sales by developers, resales from one owner to another, and sub-sales, where a buyer resells before the project is completed. HDB flats are a separate market. The figures are based on caveats lodged at the Singapore Land Registry, so they show the level of activity and not every contract signed.

The series has been revised since 2012, so its totals differ from older copies of this article. The price index used below is the URA Private Residential Property Price Index (2009 Q1 = 100).

Seven moments in the data

QuarterTransactionsDeveloper sharePrice indexWhat was happening
2007 Q214,79734.7%105.6Volume peak before the global financial crisis
2008 Q41,63925.6%116.4Volume collapse; the index hit 95.3 by Q2 2009
2012 Q310,27457.6%148.8Developers dominate sales
2013 Q34,01560.5%154.6Price peak, after 2013 cooling measures
2022 Q43,58819.2%188.6After the December 2021 cooling measures
2024 Q47,43346.0%209.4Recovery, with a larger share of new sales
2026 Q26,14834.8%219.4Record prices, moderate volume

Source: URA via data.gov.sg; shares and changes are Propwise calculations.

Volume warns early, but it is a poor timing tool

Look at what prices did around each big change in volume:

  • 2007. Quarterly volume peaked in Q2 2007. The index then rose a further 20.2% in the next four quarters, peaked in Q2 2008, and fell 24.9% to Q2 2009. Volume fell 66% in 2008 against 2007.
  • 2012 and 2013. Volume stayed high through 2012 (37,873). It fell from 10,274 in Q3 2012 to 4,015 in Q3 2013, a drop of 61%, as the 2013 cooling measures arrived, including the TDSR, introduced on 28 June 2013. The index peaked in that same quarter, 3.9% above Q3 2012, then fell 11.6% to Q2 2017. Here volume gave no early warning.
  • 2021 to 2023. Volume peaked in 2021 at 33,557. By 2023 it was 19,044, down 43%. Yet the index rose 16.1% from Q4 2021 to Q4 2023. Higher ABSD from 16 December 2021 and higher interest rates cut turnover, but prices kept climbing.

So volume led the price peak once, matched it once, and in the latest cycle fell without a price fall. Three cycles is too few to build a rule on. What the pattern does say is that volume and price can part ways when policy is doing the work. Our guide to whether prices always go up shows the full price history.

The developer share: new sales versus resales

The old version of this article made much of the mix between developer sales and resales. The mix still matters, for a different reason than we gave in 2012.

Private home sales each monthCaveats lodged by month of contract: new sales, resales and sub-sales. Excludes executive condominiums.
  • New sales (from developers)
  • Resales
  • Sub-sales
Private home sales each month. Monthly private home sales rise and fall with new launches. New sales spike in launch months, while resales run steadily at about a thousand a month.01,0002,0003,0004,00020222023202420252026Private home sales each month. Monthly private home sales rise and fall with new launches. New sales spike in launch months, while resales run steadily at about a thousand a month.01,0002,0003,0004,00020222023202420252026

Latest: New 166 (Aug 2026); Resale 1,147 (Aug 2026); Sub-sale 40 (Aug 2026).

Counts are caveats, as in URA's own quarterly totals, not units. A month appears once it is complete: URA adds late-lodged caveats for about two weeks.

Table view
PeriodNew sales (from developers)ResalesSub-sales
Aug 20261661,14740
Jul 20267321,26844
Jun 20261631,25756
May 20264381,21572
Apr 20261,5421,29851
Mar 20261,2641,11945
Feb 20262471,11944
Jan 202645998258
Dec 20251961,08558
Nov 20253251,10867
Oct 20252,4051,30177
Sep 20252411,34062
Aug 20252,1201,30987
Jul 20259041,28072
Jun 20252661,14379
May 20252871,15969
Apr 20256331,37987
Mar 20257081,408112
Feb 20251,5671,17796
Jan 20251,0561,05794
Dec 20241981,164109
Nov 20242,4851,22792
Oct 20246911,296123
Sep 20243561,22999
Aug 20241921,299117
Jul 20245391,325108
Jun 20242171,019137
May 20242091,390123
Apr 20242781,405158
Mar 20247111,087102
Feb 2024151885128
Jan 2024292881123
Dec 2023138856150
Nov 2023760975141
Oct 2023196980150
Sep 2023210875117
Aug 20233611,071141
Jul 20231,3491,022118
Jun 202326198891
May 20239841,120107
Apr 20238431,01396
Mar 20234501,291116
Feb 202339286870
Jan 202337359448
Dec 202216278660
Nov 202223890960
Oct 20222841,04474
Sep 20229491,31368
Aug 20224191,22090
Jul 20228021,18868
Jun 20224601,32171
May 20221,2761,34054
Apr 20226081,53046
Mar 20226501,33552
Feb 202253594434
Jan 20226121,07841
Dec 20216401,53262
Nov 20211,4681,61847
Oct 20218921,60939

Source: URA. Data to Aug 2026. Licences and notices

In Q1 2012, developers made 6,526 of 9,188 sales, or 71.0%. In Q2 2026 they made 2,141 of 6,148, or 34.8%. Across all quarters since Q4 1999 the share averages about 45%. When developer share is very high, as in 2012 and 2013, it means the resale market is thin relative to launches. Resales are what you will sell into, so a thin resale market means fewer comparable sales to price your unit against.

One 2012 claim does not hold up. We said developer sales were much more volatile than resales. Over 2000 to 2026, the quarterly swings are about the same: a coefficient of variation of 0.51 for developer sales and 0.49 for resales. Both swing with the cycle.

Today the resale side is steady: 3,813 resales in Q2 2026, against 3,647 in Q2 2025. The URA data show that new-sale volume is the part that has been softer, at 4,154 units in H1 2026 against 4,587 in H1 2025, a fall of 9.4%.

HDB volumes move on their own

HDB resales are a different market, and not part of the URA series. The HDB resale registrations on data.gov.sg show 6,184 resales in Q2 2026 against 6,823 in Q2 2025 (down 9.4%), then 5,169 in July and August 2026 against 4,765 a year earlier (up 8.5%). The HDB Q3 2026 flash estimate has prices down 0.2% on the quarter, the third dip in a row. Volumes are mixed while prices dip. That points to a market where buyers and sellers are still meeting, but without upward pressure.

HDB resale transactions each monthNumber of resale flats registered in the month, from January 2017.
HDB resale transactions each month. Monthly HDB resale volume dips in early 2020, jumps in late 2020 and 2021, and has settled at a lower level since 2023.05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,50020182020202220242026HDB resale transactions each month. Monthly HDB resale volume dips in early 2020, jumps in late 2020 and 2021, and has settled at a lower level since 2023.05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,50020182020202220242026

Latest: Resales 2,246 (Sep 2026).

Counts are by registration month. A month appears once it is complete.

Table view
PeriodResale transactions
Sep 20262,246
Aug 20262,520
Jul 20262,649
Jun 20262,125
May 20262,126
Apr 20261,933
Mar 20262,042
Feb 20261,661
Jan 20262,339
Dec 20252,024
Nov 20251,658
Oct 20251,338
Sep 20252,174
Aug 20252,203
Jul 20252,562
Jun 20252,260
May 20252,266
Apr 20252,297
Mar 20251,899
Feb 20252,091
Jan 20252,313
Dec 20242,112
Nov 20241,929
Oct 20242,139
Sep 20242,204
Aug 20242,591
Jul 20243,036
Jun 20242,171
May 20242,490
Apr 20242,370
Mar 20242,046
Feb 20242,123
Jan 20242,621
Dec 20232,004
Nov 20232,128
Oct 20232,189
Sep 20231,974
Aug 20232,467
Jul 20232,052
Jun 20231,853
May 20232,245
Apr 20232,177
Mar 20232,277
Feb 20231,837
Jan 20232,551
Dec 20222,234
Nov 20222,130
Oct 20221,958
Sep 20222,578
Aug 20222,309
Jul 20222,361
Jun 20222,135
May 20222,154
Apr 20222,262
Mar 20222,262
Feb 20221,895
Jan 20222,442
Dec 20212,422
Nov 20212,566
Oct 20212,499
Sep 20212,516
Aug 20212,739
Jul 20212,659
Jun 20212,302
May 20211,957
Apr 20212,333
Mar 20212,443
Feb 20212,160
Jan 20212,491
Dec 20202,486
Nov 20202,322
Oct 20202,427
Sep 20202,482
Aug 20202,426
Jul 20202,456
Jun 20202,438
May 2020363
Apr 2020424
Mar 20201,937
Feb 20201,661
Jan 20201,911
Dec 20191,848
Nov 20191,910
Oct 20192,206
Sep 20191,830
Aug 20191,902
Jul 20192,114
Jun 20191,884
May 20192,070
Apr 20191,915
Mar 20191,653
Feb 20191,304
Jan 20191,550
Dec 20181,423
Nov 20181,866
Oct 20181,992
Sep 20181,985
Aug 20182,067
Jul 20182,539
Jun 20181,975
May 20181,740
Apr 20181,838
Mar 20181,881
Feb 20181,183
Jan 20181,072
Dec 20171,585
Nov 20171,980
Oct 20171,785
Sep 20171,680
Aug 20171,960
Jul 20171,780
Jun 20171,747
May 20171,980
Apr 20171,839
Mar 20171,903
Feb 20171,085
Jan 20171,185

Source: HDB (via data.gov.sg). Data to Sep 2026. Licences and notices

How to read volume in practice

  1. Use a four-quarter total. Single quarters swing with launch calendars. The Hungry Ghost month, when developers tend not to launch, can cut a month of new sales. The four-quarter total to Q2 2026 was 25,664, 1.9% above the total to Q2 2025.
  2. Compare with the long-run average. Annual volume averaged 24,101 from 2010 to 2025. The 2025 total of 26,492 was 9.9% above that. Volume below average with prices at records is what 2023 looked like.
  3. Pair volume with price, rent and vacancy. Rising prices on falling volume suggest few sellers, not strong demand. Falling prices on rising volume suggest buyers are returning after a fall.
  4. Look at your own segment. Citywide volume says little about one condo. Say a 500-unit project records 10 resales in a year: that is 2% of units. With so few comparable sales, a seller has little evidence to set a price and may need a longer wait or a bigger discount. This is a made-up example to show the logic, not a typical figure.

What volume cannot tell you

Volume does not tell you whether a price is fair, whether your lease is long enough, or whether you can afford the loan at the 4% stress-test rate. For those, see our market outlook, the guide to whether now is a good time to buy, and our note on buying from developers or on the resale market. To test your loan, use the mortgage calculator.

Bottom line

Volume is a useful dashboard light. It shows when the market has gone quiet or crowded, and how much developers matter. It has not been a reliable timing signal in the last three cycles. Read it as a four-quarter total, check the developer share, and make your decision on price, cash flow and holding power. The URA’s full Q3 2026 statistics are due on 23 October 2026.

transaction volumesmarket cyclesdeveloper salesresale marketproperty price index

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