Permanent Portfolio and Property Investing in Singapore (2026)
How the Permanent Portfolio of stocks, bonds, gold and cash compares with Singapore property investing, with leverage maths, stamp duties and price history.
The Permanent Portfolio is a deliberately dull mix of four assets: stocks, long-term bonds, gold and cash. It aims to hold up in any economic climate rather than to win in one. Property is not one of the four. That is not an oversight you can fix by adding a fifth bucket, because a home is lumpy, leveraged and expensive to trade. If you already own a home, you also already hold a very large property position, so the useful question is how the two fit together.
At a glance
- The classic version puts 25% in each of stocks, long-term bonds, gold and cash and rebalances about once a year (Fail-Safe Investing, Harry Browne).
- It targets smaller swings, not the highest return. Gold pays no income, and the cash and bond slices drag in a long boom.
- Property breaks the model in three ways: you cannot sell part of a house to rebalance, the loan multiplies gains and losses, and Singapore stamp duties make trading costly.
- On a S$1m first home with 25% down, a 10% price move changes your cash stake by about 36%.
- Singapore’s private home price index fell 11.6% from Q3 2013 to Q2 2017 and took until Q4 2020 to regain its peak.
What the Permanent Portfolio is
Harry Browne, an American investment writer, set out the idea in his book Fail-Safe Investing. He argued that the economy moves through four conditions, and no one can reliably predict which comes next:
- Prosperity. Stocks do well.
- Inflation. Gold does well.
- Deflation. Long-term bonds do well.
- Tight money or recession. Cash does well.
So you hold all four in equal parts and let something always be working. Browne’s version used US assets. A Singapore investor would pick local equivalents for each slice, and that choice (which funds, which bonds, how to hold gold) matters more than the headline split. This article does not recommend products.
How rebalancing works: a worked example
This is an illustration with made-up returns and no trading costs. Say you start with S$400,000, or S$100,000 in each slice. After a year, stocks are up 30%, bonds are down 10%, and gold and cash are flat.
| Slice | Start | After one year | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks | S$100,000 | S$130,000 | 31.0% |
| Long-term bonds | S$100,000 | S$90,000 | 21.4% |
| Gold | S$100,000 | S$100,000 | 23.8% |
| Cash | S$100,000 | S$100,000 | 23.8% |
| Total | S$400,000 | S$420,000 |
Each slice should now be S$105,000. You sell S$25,000 of stocks. You buy S$15,000 of bonds and S$5,000 each of gold and cash. You have sold what rose and bought what fell, in small, cheap trades. That is the whole discipline.
Why property is not one of the four
It is lumpy. A S$1.2m condo is one asset. You cannot sell 3% of it to rebalance. The only exits are selling the whole thing or borrowing against it.
It is leveraged. A first home can be financed up to 75% of its value with a bank loan. The Permanent Portfolio is normally held without debt.
It is costly to trade. Singapore taxes the act of buying and selling:
- Buyer’s Stamp Duty runs in tiers from 1% to 6%.
- Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty is 20% on a citizen’s second home.
- Seller’s Stamp Duty is 16%, 12%, 8% or 4% of the price if you sell a home bought from 4 July 2025 within one, two, three or four years. Our guide to stamp duties has the full tables.
A portfolio you rebalance once a year cannot sit on costs like those.
The leverage arithmetic
A common pitch says that borrowing five times your cash turns a 6% property return into 30%. Two things are wrong with it. The most you can borrow on a first home is 75% of the price, so the home is at most four times your own money before costs, not five. And borrowing is not free.
Say you are a citizen buying your first home for S$1,000,000 with no other loan. You put down 25%, or S$250,000, and pay S$24,600 of BSD. Your cash stake is S$274,600. We leave out legal fees, which would raise it slightly.
| Price change | Gain or loss | On your S$274,600 |
|---|---|---|
| +6% | +S$60,000 | +21.8% |
| +10% | +S$100,000 | +36.4% |
| −10% | −S$100,000 | −36.4% |
| −11.6% | −S$116,000 | −42.2% |
These figures leave out loan interest (about S$15,000 in the first year on S$750,000 at 2.0%, the low end of fixed packages quoted after the September 2026 Fed hike, and offset by the rent you would otherwise pay), maintenance and agent fees. Leverage works both ways. The last row uses the 2013 to 2017 fall described below. On top of that, you still owe the full loan, and if you must sell within four years you also pay SSD.
Singapore property is not a smooth ride
URA’s all-residential price index, published on data.gov.sg, shows how uneven the path has been:
- It fell from 154.6 in Q3 2013 to 136.6 in Q2 2017, a drop of 11.6%. It did not pass the old peak until Q4 2020 (157.0), more than seven years later.
- It fell from 129.7 in Q2 1996 to 71.5 in Q4 1998, about 45%.
- Over the ten years to Q2 2026 it grew about 4.6% a year (140.0 to 219.4), before rent, stamp duties and other costs.
- Policy measures (select one for details)
Latest: Private 219.4 (Q2 2026).
The index is a market average, not the price of any single home. Marked policy measures are shown for context only.
Table view
| Period | Private homes (URA price index) |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 219.4 |
| Q1 2026 | 218.3 |
| Q4 2025 | 216.4 |
| Q3 2025 | 215.1 |
| Q2 2025 | 213.2 |
| Q1 2025 | 211.1 |
| Q4 2024 | 209.4 |
| Q3 2024 | 204.7 |
| Q2 2024 | 206.1 |
| Q1 2024 | 204.3 |
| Q4 2023 | 201.5 |
| Q3 2023 | 196.0 |
| Q2 2023 | 194.4 |
| Q1 2023 | 194.8 |
| Q4 2022 | 188.6 |
| Q3 2022 | 187.8 |
| Q2 2022 | 180.9 |
| Q1 2022 | 174.8 |
| Q4 2021 | 173.6 |
| Q3 2021 | 165.3 |
| Q2 2021 | 163.5 |
| Q1 2021 | 162.2 |
| Q4 2020 | 157.0 |
| Q3 2020 | 153.8 |
| Q2 2020 | 152.6 |
| Q1 2020 | 152.1 |
| Q4 2019 | 153.6 |
| Q3 2019 | 152.8 |
| Q2 2019 | 150.8 |
| Q1 2019 | 148.6 |
| Q4 2018 | 149.6 |
| Q3 2018 | 149.7 |
| Q2 2018 | 149.0 |
| Q1 2018 | 144.1 |
| Q4 2017 | 138.7 |
| Q3 2017 | 137.6 |
| Q2 2017 | 136.6 |
| Q1 2017 | 136.7 |
| Q4 2016 | 137.2 |
| Q3 2016 | 137.9 |
| Q2 2016 | 140.0 |
| Q1 2016 | 140.6 |
| Q4 2015 | 141.6 |
| Q3 2015 | 142.3 |
| Q2 2015 | 144.2 |
| Q1 2015 | 145.5 |
| Q4 2014 | 147.0 |
| Q3 2014 | 148.6 |
| Q2 2014 | 149.7 |
| Q1 2014 | 151.3 |
| Q4 2013 | 153.2 |
| Q3 2013 | 154.6 |
| Q2 2013 | 154.0 |
| Q1 2013 | 152.4 |
| Q4 2012 | 151.5 |
| Q3 2012 | 148.8 |
| Q2 2012 | 147.9 |
| Q1 2012 | 147.2 |
| Q4 2011 | 147.4 |
| Q3 2011 | 147.0 |
| Q2 2011 | 145.1 |
| Q1 2011 | 142.3 |
| Q4 2010 | 139.2 |
| Q3 2010 | 135.5 |
| Q2 2010 | 131.7 |
| Q1 2010 | 125.1 |
| Q4 2009 | 118.4 |
| Q3 2009 | 110.3 |
| Q2 2009 | 95.3 |
| Q1 2009 | 100.0 |
| Q4 2008 | 116.4 |
| Q3 2008 | 123.9 |
| Q2 2008 | 126.9 |
| Q1 2008 | 126.7 |
| Q4 2007 | 122.1 |
| Q3 2007 | 114.4 |
| Q2 2007 | 105.6 |
| Q1 2007 | 97.6 |
| Q4 2006 | 93.1 |
| Q3 2006 | 89.6 |
| Q2 2006 | 87.3 |
| Q1 2006 | 85.8 |
| Q4 2005 | 84.5 |
| Q3 2005 | 83.3 |
| Q2 2005 | 82.3 |
| Q1 2005 | 81.9 |
| Q4 2004 | 81.3 |
| Q3 2004 | 80.7 |
| Q2 2004 | 80.4 |
| Q1 2004 | 80.3 |
| Q4 2003 | 80.6 |
| Q3 2003 | 80.7 |
| Q2 2003 | 81.1 |
| Q1 2003 | 81.6 |
| Q4 2002 | 82.3 |
| Q3 2002 | 82.6 |
| Q2 2002 | 82.2 |
| Q1 2002 | 82.8 |
| Q4 2001 | 83.8 |
| Q3 2001 | 87.6 |
| Q2 2001 | 90.3 |
| Q1 2001 | 91.1 |
| Q4 2000 | 94.9 |
| Q3 2000 | 97.6 |
| Q2 2000 | 100.4 |
| Q1 2000 | 98.9 |
| Q4 1999 | 95.9 |
| Q3 1999 | 91.1 |
| Q2 1999 | 84.3 |
| Q1 1999 | 75.4 |
| Q4 1998 | 71.5 |
| Q3 1998 | 78.3 |
| Q2 1998 | 90.1 |
| Q1 1998 | 98.3 |
| Q4 1997 | 108.4 |
| Q3 1997 | 113.0 |
| Q2 1997 | 118.2 |
| Q1 1997 | 119.2 |
| Q4 1996 | 123.7 |
| Q3 1996 | 127.2 |
| Q2 1996 | 129.7 |
| Q1 1996 | 122.3 |
| Q4 1995 | 117.9 |
| Q3 1995 | 112.7 |
| Q2 1995 | 111.1 |
| Q1 1995 | 109.8 |
| Q4 1994 | 106.9 |
| Q3 1994 | 104.5 |
| Q2 1994 | 93.6 |
| Q1 1994 | 82.1 |
| Q4 1993 | 75.1 |
| Q3 1993 | 71.1 |
| Q2 1993 | 64.9 |
| Q1 1993 | 58.3 |
| Q4 1992 | 55.3 |
| Q3 1992 | 53.8 |
| Q2 1992 | 51.8 |
| Q1 1992 | 49.9 |
| Q4 1991 | 47.6 |
| Q3 1991 | 46.8 |
| Q2 1991 | 45.6 |
| Q1 1991 | 42.1 |
| Q4 1990 | 40.3 |
| Q3 1990 | 42.0 |
| Q2 1990 | 41.8 |
| Q1 1990 | 40.9 |
Policy measures marked on this chart (26)
- 2025-07-03 Seller's Stamp Duty holding period back to four years, rates raised by 4 pp
- 2024-08-19 HDB loan LTV cut to 75% and Enhanced CPF Housing Grant raised
- 2023-04-26 ABSD rates raised, April 2023
- 2023-02-14 CPF Housing Grant raised for first-time resale buyers, Budget 2023
- 2023-02-14 Buyer's Stamp Duty raised for higher-value properties, Budget 2023
- 2022-09-29 Property measures, September 2022: higher TDSR and MSR rate floor, HDB loan LTV 80%, 15-month wait-out
- 2021-12-15 Property cooling measures, December 2021: higher ABSD, TDSR 55%, HDB loan LTV 85%
- 2018-07-05 Property cooling measures, July 2018: higher ABSD and lower LTV limits
- 2018-02-19 Budget 2018: Proximity Housing Grant enhanced
- 2018-02-19 Budget 2018: top BSD rate raised to 4% above S$1m
- 2017-03-10 SSD holding period cut to 3 years; TDSR relaxed for equity withdrawal
- 2013-08-27 HDB loan and resale measures, August 2013
- 2013-06-28 MAS introduces the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) framework
- 2013-01-11 Property cooling measures, January 2013
- 2012-10-05 Maximum loan tenure of 35 years and tighter LTV limits, October 2012
- 2011-12-07 Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty introduced, December 2011
- 2011-01-13 Property cooling measures, January 2011
- 2010-08-30 HDB measures after National Day Rally 2010: DBSS income ceiling, 5-year MOP for non-subsidised flats
- 2010-08-30 Property cooling measures, August 2010
- 2010-02-19 Seller's Stamp Duty introduced and LTV limit cut to 80%, February 2010
- 2009-09-14 Interest-only loans and Interest Absorption Scheme disallowed, September 2009
- 2005-07-19 Property policy review, July 2005: LTV limit raised to 90%, CPF housing rules eased, foreign ownership rules eased
- 2001-10-12 Second off-budget package, October 2001: property tax rebate, stamp duty cut, gains tax removed, land sales eased
- 1998-06-29 Off-budget property measures, June 1998: land sales suspended, stamp duty deferred
- 1997-11-18 Property relief, November 1997: seller's stamp duty suspended, land sales deferred
- 1996-05-14 Anti-speculation measures, May 1996: seller's stamp duty, tax on short-term gains, 80% loan limit
Source: URA (via SingStat). Data to Q2 2026. Licences and notices
URA’s figures for Q3 2026 (flash estimate) showed private prices rose 1.4% on the quarter. Our guide on whether prices always go up covers the long record in more detail.
How the two can sit together
Nothing here says you must choose one. It says to count your assets as they really are.
Count your home as its own big position. Say you own a S$1.2m condo with a S$700,000 loan. Your equity is S$500,000. You also hold S$300,000 in liquid savings and investments, and you put those in a Permanent Portfolio. Your home equity is still 62.5% of the S$800,000 total (leaving CPF aside). The portfolio spreads the liquid part. It does not spread the whole.
Keep liquid money for the loan. If you lose your job, a mortgage keeps running. Cash and other liquid slices pay the instalments without forcing a sale. Our piece on unemployment and property risk explains why this matters.
Get property exposure without the lumpiness. Listed REITs let you hold property income in small amounts, and you can sell part of a holding. They trade like shares, so they carry share-market risk. See REITs versus physical property for the trade-offs.
Remember CPF. Your CPF savings already work like a low-risk slice. The Ordinary Account earns 2.5%, and the Special, MediSave and Retirement Accounts have a 4% floor, which the government has extended to 31 December 2027.
Is a Permanent Portfolio right for you?
Ask yourself:
- Horizon. The idea is a long-term holding. A short test period tells you little.
- Tolerance for paper losses. One slice will always be down. Can you hold it through a bad year, and rebalance into it?
- Your existing property bet. The more of your net worth sits in your home, the less the portfolio changes your overall risk.
- Your tax and cost position. Rebalancing trades cost money. Check fees before you start.
This is general information, not personal advice.
Bottom line
The Permanent Portfolio is built for low volatility and easy rebalancing. Property is the opposite: large, indivisible, leveraged and heavily taxed on the way in and out. Neither is wrong. Know which one you are doing, look at the whole of your balance sheet, and do not let a 30% headline return from borrowed money hide a 40% loss in the bad years.
